Brief thought exercise: is it really reasonable to think El Chapo will stay in prison this time?

The Context Of Things

The longest article written on the capture of El Chapo Guzman (at least in an American publication) ran in The New Yorker in early May, and pointedly addressed the fact there’s concern/mistrust among the Americans with regard to whether he’ll actually stay in prison this time. After all, he was in prison in 2001 (high-security then as well) and escaped:

Consider how El Chapo escaped in 2001 and see if you’d have faith in the current situation:

Mexico’s official story of Mr. Guzman’s escape goes like this: He befriended a prison maintenance worker named Javier Camberos. Mr. Guzman then told the guards who were on his payroll that Mr. Camberos was going to be smuggling some gold out of the prison in a laundry cart, and to not search the cart. But on the night of Jan. 19, 2001, Mr. Guzman hid in the cart as Mr. Camberos wheeled him…

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